Middle of the draft – Picks 5 thru 8

Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers?

This is really where the first set of true decisions must be made and it begins right at pick #5. If in a PPR league, with 4pts per QB touchdown, a guy like WR Andre Johnson or RB Frank Gore are solid picks here. If the league awards 6 pts per QB touchdown, QBs Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees get some consideration, But regardless of which path an owner takes, he must keep in mind what will drop to these spots in the next two rounds and the consider the depth at all the positions for future rounds.

First, let’s explore taking a QB in round 1 within the middle of the draft. A team starts off with Aaron Rodgers and now it’s to the middle of round two. RBs like Gore, Turner and Steven Jackson are long gone, so what you have now are options like Deangelo Williams, Mendenhall, Ryan Grant or maybe youngsters like Shonne Greene or Ryan Matthews. There are question marks with all those players and just by listing that many possibilities you can assume that since the owners drafting in the first four picks already have top level RBs, someone in the next tier of RBs will fall to you in the 3^rd round. So I think owners drafting the middle here now have to look WR and the options should be pretty nice, maybe a Randy Moss or Reggie Wayne, and if not them, guys like Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, or Miles Austin would be good options. Then in round #3, its likely one of the RBs I just mentioned will still be there or someone like Benson or youngsters like Charles, Wells and McCoy will be nice options. So by going QB in round 1, you would be stating out with a team like Rodgers, Benson, and Austin. Not too bad of a haul and keep in mind because of all the RBBC approaches the depth at RB in rounds 5-10 of the draft is the best it has ever been in my opinion

Second, let’s look at going WR in round #1. An owner here gets a player like Andre Johnson, and when it comes to round two the same RBs as mentioned above are available. The problem once again, is these all of them fall under the next tier of RBs, and it’s probably more likely they under perform their ADP then outperform it. So in my opinion, an owner could go with another WR here and really have a jump on everyone else in the league with two proven top 5-8 WRs, or grab a QB like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady depending on the league scoring system. But, if any owner goes QB in round 2 in a PPR when picking at the middle draft slots, it is in their best interest to make sure and grab a RB in round #3. This will in turn cause the owner to wait on a 2^nd WR until round #4 and the drop off to getting a 15^th- 20^th ranked WR in round #4 when compared to taking one that could be top 5 in round #2 is pretty huge.

Last, let’s look at going RB in round #1. An owner here probably goes with

Michael Turner - Comeback Candidate

guys like Frank Gore or Michael Turner and heading into the middle of round #2, good options at QB and WR will be available. RB is an alright option here to, but I still believe the difference between what you can get at RB in the middle of round #2 is not that far off from what you can get in round #3. So my recommendation in a PPR format would be to get a WR in round #2 and then in round #3 you are totally open to going QB, RB or WR. At least you have a RB from round #1 that gets plenty of touches without much of a RBBC approach so in many ways you are in the same position as the owners picking within the top 4 and without as big of a need to get a very nice RB2.

Overall, picking in slots 5-8 puts you behind the owners who now have elite RBs, but that does not mean you are out of solid options. The importance of QBs in your league will be a big factor in how you draft in these spots, but if getting two top WRs puts you ahead of other owners because it’s PPR scoring, taking WR in the first two rounds is a nice option, and then grabbing a RB in round #3 and actually even again in round #4 would still field a nice starting lineup. You would miss out on the elite QBs, but grabbing two of your next 6-7 top ranked QBs starting in rounds 5, 6 or 7 will allow you to play matchups each week and find good scoring success from that position.

Part three (and the conclusion) of this series coming tomorrow.

Image via Wikipedia

More so than I can remember in past seasons, 2010 appears to be the year with the most easily definable draft position strategies. No matter whether you are drafting at the front, middle or back of a 10 or 12 team serpentine draft, it is likely you will follow a more specific pattern for drafting your team and filling out your roster than ever before.

Many leagues have different roster requirements like starting 2 QBs or 3 WRs, and alternative scoring systems, but for the purpose of this discussion let’s consider for the most part a league starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR and 1 Flex position with basic PPR scoring.

I have been involved in several drafts already and I have also seen many mock drafts and I am seeing the same trends in all these drafts when looking at what is taken based on draft position. So with that in mind, I am going to breakdown the draft into 3 parts (picks 1-4, 5-8, 9-12), and discuss the winning strategies for drafting in those spots.  This post covers 1-4, the Monday post will cover picks 5-8, and 9-12 will be covered in the Tuesday post.

Front of the draft – Picks 1 thru 4

There is a clear consensus in most of the fantasy world that there are four elite RBs, so picking in the front of the draft does not take much thought when choosing a player in the first round. When drafting at picks 1-4 in a 10 or 12 team fantasy football league, more times that not, the first four picks overall will be Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, MJD, and Ray Rice. The owners drafting here will have a jump on everyone else in the league because they will have an elite runner in a world of RBBC approaches.

With a top level RB rostered from the start of the draft, these owners picking in the front of the draft have plenty of options at their disposal. Do you go RB again? Do you take 2 WRs? Make sure you get a QB? There will be nice options available at all these positions, so picking in the front of the draft is a great spot to be in 2010.

In my opinion these owners must get a WR in the 2^nd or 3^rd round, I have found the drop in talent to the end of the 4^th or beginning of the 5^th round is pretty monumental so getting a WR like Roddy White or Brandon Marshall for example is a great play here.

The third pick for these owners should be a QB or WR and not a second RB unless a top 10 type guy drops in their lap. With most owners feeling there is a drop off at QB after guys like Phillip Rivers or Matt Schaub, an owner picking in one of the first four spots should they not go QB in the 3^rd round, will not see a top 7 QB more than likely get back to them in the 4^th round.

The other route is to go with a 2^nd WR which in a PPR league is a great choice as well. So if picking in the front of the draft, I like the option of going RB, WR, QB, or RB, WR, WR because these owners already have an superior RB so a getting a RB2 early is not as important and they also will have top level proven players at QB and/or WR.

The middle of the draft will be covered in Monday’s post, with the back end of the draft covered in Tuesday’s post.  Let us know what you think about the first part in the series!

Pick            Ovr            Franchise            Selection            Date/Time
1.01             1.             Rowdy Aussies             Johnson, Chris TEN RB
1.02             2.             Double Tap             Peterson, Adrian MIN RB
1.03             3.             Capital Punishment             Rice, Ray BAL RB
1.04             4.             Fight Club             Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB
1.05             5.             Yellowjackets             Johnson, Andre HOU WR
1.06             6.             Underdogs             Gore, Frank SFO RB
1.07             7.             Ari Gold’s Client List             Turner, Michael ATL RB
1.08             8.             Double Tap             Johnson, Calvin DET WR
1.09             9.             Hobbs Killa             Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB
1.10             10.             Marlboruff Stampede             Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR
1.11             11.             Purple People Eaters Brees, Drew NOS QB
1.12             12.             Triple Threat             Marshall, Brandon MIA WR

So the top RB’s were the initial picks of the draft, no surprise there and thanks to a last second modification to the starting lineups for the league, those STUD RB’s are even more of an advantage since the league went from allowing up to 4 RB starters per week to as little as 1 RB starter per week (with a max of 3).  A nice run of WR’s and the top two QB’s went as well.

I am still sick about Rodgers going that soon since I traded back to the 2.01 for a shot at a top QB.  Yeah, that didn’t quite work out the way I intended but oh well.

RD 1 Biggest Reach: Andre Johnson WR HOU at #5 and no this has nothing to do with that owner teasing me about a trade for close to two hours and then backing out last second.   I mean that was tough but the fact he turned around and pulled off two other trades shortly there after was worse and I forgave him…ok, mostly forgave him.  Still in this setup with QB, TE, RB, LB all outweighing WR in importance, that was early even though I do have a total man crush on AJ, the best WR in the NFL in my view.

Thus far there has been lots of movement with close to 5 trades happening already, which may be a record for the first 2.5 rounds of a dynasty start up draft.

Pick            Ovr            Franchise            Selection            Date/Time
2.01             13.             Fight Club             Gates, Antonio SDC TE
2.02             14.             Purple People Eaters             Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB
2.03             15.             Marlboruff Stampede             Austin, Miles DAL WR
2.04             16.             Hobbs Killa             White, Roddy ATL WR
2.05             17.             Capital Punishment             Mathews, Ryan SDC RB
2.06             18.             Ari Gold’s Client List             Wayne, Reggie IND WR
2.07             19.             Capital Punishment             Wells, Chris ARI RB
2.08             20.             Yellowjackets             Jackson, Steven STL RB
2.09             21.             Triple Threat             Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB
2.10             22.             Marlboruff Stampede             Bryant, Dez DAL WR
2.11             23.             Chuck Norris             Davis, Vernon SFO TE
2.12             24.             Rowdy Aussies             Jennings, Greg GBP WR

I kicked off Round two by taking the first TE, wanted the chance to have my choice of TE in this format, where TE’s get 1pt per 5 yards receiving and 3 points per catch, that makes TE an equally important position as opposed to many fantasy football leagues where TE is an afterthought on par with the Kicker.

There were a whole bunch of WR’s have been taken so far in this draft and rightfully so since we must start 2 WR’s at minimum each week and they get 2 points per reception.  V Davis is a nice get as the 23rd player selected in the draft although I am not ready to call him the best TE in the game like some players are.. **cough*Norris*cough**

So what are your thoughts on the first two rounds? Any steals?  Any reaches/any picks you would have done much differently?

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• Updated Dynasty Rookie Rankings (bleacherreport.com)

The key word to remember is preparation.  Just as in the NFL, you have to outwork your opponents to build a team that competes every season.  Do you want to have the fantasy equivalent of the Patriots?  Making smart picks, cutting players at the right time, building around the right franchise players….Or would you rather be your league’s version of the the Detroit Lions?

I’m going to focus on the new guys in this article.  Maybe you’re the guy who just beat up all the clowns in your office league for the fourth straight year and you’re looking for a challenge.  Well, if you jump into a dynasty blindly, you’re going to wind up looking dumber than Lloyd Christmas.   Here’s what you need to know…

First of all, there are many aspects of football you need to focus on.  What do you know about the college game?  Hopefully quite a bit, as you’ll need to know which of these upcoming rookies are worth drafting (we’re already looking ahead to 2011).  And if you don’t know anything about defensive players (most redraft leagues don’t draft individual defensive players), you better start studying up on that as well…in most dynasties, you’ll be drafting linebackers, defensive backs, and linemen.  The preparation you did for your redraft league is nothing compared to what you’ll do in a dynasty.

Dynasty ownership is nothing to take lightly.  Your opponents are die hards.  They are always hungry for football, no matter the season (most leagues are open all year for transactions).  And we’re not just trading players, but also key draft picks are thrown in to help seal deals.  Picks are important because someone is drooling over a running back that just dominated the Big Ten conference and blew up in a bowl game.  If you aren’t sold on a particular rookie, you can move a pick to someone else who is.

You can get by in some casual redraft leagues by half-assing your way through a draft and checking in once a week 20 minutes prior to kickoff on Sunday.  But dynasty leagues are not won on Sunday mornings.  You want to win this thing?  You need to put enough time into it that your wife or girlfriend won’t be too happy you’re playing this game.  That’s what she’ll call it…a “game.”  But you and I both know it’s much more than that.

Still interested?  Here are a few key components to get you on your way:

1. Knowing your league setup is half the battle. Make sure you fully understand the league rules and scoring system.  Some guys jump in and draft based on a standard scoring system.  I generally refer to these guys as morons.  Learn the scoring before you start deciding who to target.

2.  Who are you playing against? Feel out your opponents.  Send some emails around and let people know you’re in this to be active.  Figure out various personalities, which players your league mates covet, etc.  Some guys like veterans, some guys want to horde rookie picks.  You’ll make friends…you’ll make enemies.  These guys are your opponents, but you need to build a working relationship with them, as you’ll be reaching out to pull off trades, etc.

3.  Roster building. This is the reason you’re in a dynasty.  You’re probably going to keep the majority of your roster from year to year…so draft wisely, grasshopper.  When drafting rookies, you really don’t know what you have in most guys for two or three seasons.  So be patient, and make sure you have a team of veterans that you can win with in the meantime.  Build your team around these studs, and start a pipeline of rookies that you hope will become the next Chris Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald.

These are just a few basic guidelines to help you get started in your new endeavor.  Remember the key word?

Say it with me… “PREPARATION.”

Very good.

If you’re looking at joining a dynasty league right now, hopefully you started preparing a loooong time ago.

If not, you better start cramming.

The goal is to make everyone a little more comfortable with how the site and forums are laid out.

Some basics:

The Forums

On the forum home page, you will find that the forums for the site are divided up just like folders on your computer.  The forum home page is the top level of folders.

Here is an image of the NFL/Fantasy Football forums for NLSFF.

Couple of things to notice in that image:

1. On the right hand side, the red icons means that there are unread messages in the forum(s).
   1. Also, if there are any Sub-Forums they will be listed below the forum description here
   2. Then if you click into the forums, the Sub-Forums will be located at the top of the page, above the loose threads within the forum.
2. The newest post in each forum is listed on the right hand side.
3. The orange RSS feed for each forum, allows you to be notified of new posts within that forum through your choice of RSS reader.  This is a great way to keep up with the subjects that interest you.

Next up is the navigation bar for the forums.  This will take you to all the major spots within the forum side of NLSFF.

Here is the image:

Along the bottom of the image are the major components of the NLSFF forums:

1. Forums: That is the link for the forum home page, which was covered above.
2. vBookie: Fake NLSFF points are able to be wagered on your choice of the major sporting events across the sports landscape, if you do not see a game you want to wager on with fake NLSFF points, request it in the request thread found here.
3. The rest of the links there, take you to different other aspects of the NLSFF forums, try them out and comments are always welcome on anything.
4. Also, upload your favorite videos to the Media Section.
5. Click the Whats New link for the most recent posts with the newest at the top of the column.
6. Gallery, upload images from your tailgate’s, sporting events, or of yourself chilling on NLSFF and earn yourself some Experience points AND some NLSFF Points to use in the vBookie.

There is the image again, this time, notice in the upper right corner:

1. Notifications: We offer free Private Messaging to all members, so as you get to know your fellow community members, this area is where you will be prompted when you have new messages waiting.
2. My Profile: Add your image, a little bit about yourself, your favorite teams, etc.  Easy to find as this navbar is in the upper right of every forum page.
3. Settings: A quick link to update your settings for your NLSFF forums.  The page you go to upon clicking this link is covered in more detail here which is a link to that section of the Forum FAQ.
4. Log Out: Logout of the forums, an especially good idea if you are on a public computer.

The Website Side of Things | Coming in the next post.  So stay tuned and PLEASE, post any additional questions you have in the comments below.  I will answer them AND include them in the FAQ as well.

Close to 600 Members Strong

Follow the conversations on Twitter & Facebook as well.

That is the only way it can work since the leagues are all dynasty or redraft leagues that are based on competing with the other managers over the course of the full season.  Fun…but wouldn’t it be even better if the gratification was instant?  If each week there was a competition and a winner was paid out via secure PayPal before noon of the next day?

Yes.

This season marks the first season that NLSFF will be offering just that.  Competition on a bed of instant gratification.

Ruh Roh Raggy……Its a whole NEW fantasy sports world…More to come,

so stay tuned…

Welcome DDS to the new feature we will be running on a monthly basis: NLS Member Spotlight. This is where we take 1 to 2 members a month and show them off to the rest of the community.

Thanks for taking the time to do this and please start by introducing yourself to the audience.

DDS: My name is Dan, I’m 30, live in a suburb of Detroit called Northville I’m an accountant for a chemical supplier in Oak Park, MI. Was born in Akron, OH and I’m a huge fan of Cleveland sports (Browns being #1 on the list) and Ohio State football. Love playing fantasy sports and discussing sports in general.

Being a fan of Cleveland sports must be tuff for you, how do you feel about Lebron James and his decision?

DDS: It sucks. It sucks for Cleveland, sucks for the fans, sucks at just about every aspect you look at it from a Cleveland perspective. I lost a lot of faith in the NBA as a whole this summer. I don’t really see the point in watching anymore and with this new Miami team it’s going to be all we hear and read about for the next six years. I wish him the best but I’m not a fan of the decision, the person or the league anymore because of it. Only team I will follow will be OKC, much respect for Kevin Durant and how he comes out and straight up balls on a nightly basis without seeking any attention for it. I can respect that.

Interesting. So besides fantasy sports, sports and being at NLS what else do you do in your free time?

DDS: Hang out with the girlfriend, love to golf (although I suck), going to concerts, chilling with friends and family, going boating out on the lake, going to the casino, I’m in a bowling league, I’m a member of Browns Backers organization in Ann Arbor that has a lot of events throughout the year. Drink and maybe other recreational activities. Nothing special, I’m not flying to Europe or taking weekend trips to the Bahamas or anything

Many of them fall in line with what I like to do. So what is your game of choice at the casino? And If I could ask what is your bowling average?

DDS: Three Card Poker, love it, almost too much! My average tends to go from 160 -170 usually.

Cool stuff. So what is your first memory of NLS, how did you find us, and why have you stuck around?

DDS: First memory was day one I guess, came over when the site was created from TSZ. Was at TSZ forever, been back and fourth between both sites for years, can’t remember when I met mike but it was a long time ago. The fantasy sports keep me coming back. Good group of guys in all the leagues, fun to talk shit with and fun to compete against. Met some great people with similar interests through NLS and I look forward to meeting more.

If there was one thing that NLS could/should add to attract more traffic and membership what would it be?

DDS: Hot chicks of NLS thread?

Ha nice, well I dont want to keep this going forever as I am sure you are busy so lets wrap this up with some favorite questions:

Favorite
———
Food: Steak
Drink: Crown on the rocks
Car: Bugatti Veyron
Snack: Oreo’s
MLB: Cleveland Indians
NFL: Cleveland Browns
NHL: Detroit Red Wings
NBA: Oklahoma City Thunder
College: THE Ohio State University
TV Show: in no order, Weeds, House, American Pickers and Pawn Stars
Movie: Training Day

Any questions for me?

DDS: Why are you so scared of other people knowing what you look like lol. Hobbs said your really a chick……..

I am not scared of it, just really have no pictures to show. Maybe I will share one for the reveal of the new website layout? That is if someone asks me nicely. I just want to keep our members here and not run them off. On the Hobbs topic he is not interested in women so if that was the case he would not be here.

Well thanks for taking the time for this its appreciated as well as all the time you put in here keeping the site as active as you possibly can.

DDS: No problem, thanks for asking.

Just wait until mike finishes all the images for the site and we get them online! Gonna be…wait for it……….wait for it…..EPIC!!